Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 3W 4D 3L at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Qingdao Jonoon. A 0.50 PPG lead over Wuhan Three Towns (1.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Qingdao Jonoon have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wuhan Three Towns in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Wuhan Three Towns, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2025, ended 0–2 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
It is worth noting that Wuhan Three Towns have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Wuhan Three Towns 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 41% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 2.10 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.008 / defence 1.080 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.760 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.788 / away 1.466. Data: 58 Qingdao Jonoon games / 58 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 58% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Wuhan Three Towns 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Jonoon (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Wuhan Three Towns lead the H2H ledger, but Qingdao Jonoon carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Jonoon are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Wuhan Three Towns 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 58% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 2.10 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.008 / def 1.080 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.760 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.788 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Wuhan Three Towns xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 58% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (5 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 4W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 1.01x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.76x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
58%
1.74
22%
4.63
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.30
1.20
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
3%
39.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.20 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 58 games, going 12W 14D 32L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 0.97 PPG from 58 outings (14W 14D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 0.97 for Wuhan Three Towns. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 9W 9D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (6W 7D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.10 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 12W 14D 32L in their last 58 games (0.86 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 14D 30L in their last 58 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.24 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 1-5 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
5
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 52%, Wuhan Three Towns 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 55% (Wuhan Three Towns).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 31% of games; Wuhan Three Towns in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 55% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Jonoon edge out Wuhan Three Towns 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 2.10 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.20 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 58% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 41%, Wuhan Three Towns 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.86 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.