Qingdao Jonoon 2-2 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao Youth Football Stadium plays host to Qingdao Jonoon versus Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Qingdao Jonoon at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Qingdao Jonoon 0W, Dalian Aerbin 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Dalian Aerbin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 46% | Dalian Aerbin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.71 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.016 / defence 1.339 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.701 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.194. Data: 28 Qingdao Jonoon games / 62 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 51% | Draw 24% | Dalian Aerbin 25%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Dalian Aerbin 4.00. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Dalian Aerbin 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 51% | Draw 24% | Dalian Aerbin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.71 / Dalian Aerbin 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.016 / def 1.339 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.701 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Dalian Aerbin xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin?
Qingdao Jonoon 2 - 2 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 51% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 1 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Aerbin in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 1.02x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.70x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.17
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.83
1.12
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
5%
21.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.12 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 7W 5D 16L from 28 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Dalian Aerbin, meanwhile, have gone 3W 10D 15L across 28 games — 0.68 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 0.68 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 7W 2D 5L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dalian Aerbin's away record stands at 0W 3D 11L across 14 trips, a 0.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Aerbin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 5D 16L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 3W 10D 15L in their last 28 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.64 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Aerbin?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Qingdao Jonoon 2-2 Dalian Aerbin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Dalian Aerbin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 43% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 29% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 43% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Aerbin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Aerbin finished level at 2-2 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.71 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.12 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.02 / defence 1.34 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.70 / defence 1.10, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 51% | Draw 24% | Dalian Aerbin 25%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 46%, Dalian Aerbin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 0.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.