Nantong Zhiyun 1-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Nantong Zhiyun take on Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Nantong Zhiyun in Super League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 10 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.84 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.731 / defence 0.943 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.993 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.186. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Nantong Zhiyun games / 38 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 23% | Draw 39% | Hangzhou Greentown 38%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 4.35 | Draw 2.56 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.63. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 23% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 23% | Draw 39% | Hangzhou Greentown 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.84 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.731 / def 0.943 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.993 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 10 May 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 23% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 38% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Hangzhou Greentown away split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantong Zhiyun's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.99x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 5/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
23%
4.26
39%
2.57
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
1.95
1.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
4.26
23%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 15.8 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.11 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 5-2 on 17 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nantong Zhiyun
1
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Nantong Zhiyun 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Nantong Zhiyun 1-2 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.84 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.11 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.73 / defence 0.94 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 5/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 23% | Draw 39% | Hangzhou Greentown 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.