Meizhou Kejia 1-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to take on Meizhou Kejia. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 December 2022, 07:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Changchun Yatai away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Changchun Yatai are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Meizhou Kejia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Changchun Yatai in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 1 for Changchun Yatai and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 45% versus Changchun Yatai 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 52% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.61 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.024 / defence 0.980 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.112 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.385. Data: 31 Meizhou Kejia games / 45 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 35%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Changchun Yatai 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Changchun Yatai (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Changchun Yatai 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.61 / Changchun Yatai 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.024 / def 0.980 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.112 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Changchun Yatai xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 07:00 on Friday 23 December 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 39% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai?
Record (1 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (1.02) and Changchun Yatai's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
39%
2.58
27%
3.75
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.12
1.51
Changchun Yatai xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
7%
14.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.51 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 31 games, going 12W 7D 12L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.32 PPG from 31 outings (10W 11D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Meizhou Kejia on 1.39 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 7W 2D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.50 points per game from 14 outings (5W 6D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.45 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 12W 7D 12L in their last 31 games (1.39 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 10W 11D 10L in their last 31 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.64 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Changchun Yatai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 5, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 64%, Changchun Yatai 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Meizhou Kejia and 71% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 64% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 71% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Meizhou Kejia edge out Changchun Yatai 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Changchun Yatai 1-0 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.61 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.51 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.11 / defence 1.11, drawn from 31/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 35%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 52%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.39 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.