Henan Jianye 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Qingdao Jonoon travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye in Super League (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Henan Jianye stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Henan Jianye have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, Henan Jianye have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Henan Jianye have won 0, Qingdao Jonoon 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 17 Jul 2023, ended Henan Jianye 0–2 Qingdao Jonoon — a Qingdao Jonoon win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 50% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 43% | Qingdao Jonoon 47%). Note also that Qingdao Jonoon surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Henan Jianye recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.16 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.959 / defence 1.087 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.603 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.336. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.603 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 36 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 36.

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 32% | Qingdao Jonoon 27%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.43 | Draw 3.10 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 60% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 30% (last 10 away games).

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