Henan Jianye 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.50 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Henan Jianye 2W, Hangzhou Greentown 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 55% versus Hangzhou Greentown 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 49% | Hangzhou Greentown 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.87 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.792 / defence 0.946 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.335. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hangzhou Greentown bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Henan Jianye games / 49 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 55% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 20%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 60% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 55% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Henan Jianye 1.87 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.792 / def 0.946 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Hangzhou Greentown xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Henan Jianye 2 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 55% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (5 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.79x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.85x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.06
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.95
1.07
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
3%
31.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.07 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 15D 20L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.69 PPG from 49 outings (25W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Henan Jianye's home form reads 10W 7D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.33 points per game from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.84 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 14W 15D 20L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 25W 8D 16L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.54 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 54%, Hangzhou Greentown 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Henan Jianye and 79% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Henan Jianye's games and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Henan Jianye's matches and 79% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Hangzhou Greentown 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.87 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.07 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.79 / defence 0.95 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.85 / defence 1.38, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 55% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 20%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 49%, Hangzhou Greentown 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.