Hangzhou Greentown 3-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hangzhou Greentown at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 2.40 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 56% versus Wuhan Three Towns 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Wuhan Three Towns 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.41 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.346 / defence 0.904 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.135 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.536. Hangzhou Greentown carry an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Hangzhou Greentown games / 42 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 20% | Wuhan Three Towns 24%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Wuhan Three Towns 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Wuhan Three Towns 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 20% | Wuhan Three Towns 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 73% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.41 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.346 / def 0.904 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.135 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.536 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Wuhan Three Towns xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 56% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (4 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.35x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
56%
1.80
20%
4.95
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.99
1.58
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
9%
11.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
2%
46.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.58 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 33W 18D 12L from 63 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 38W 12D 13L across 63 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.86 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 19W 6D 6L from 31 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 19W 6D 6L across 31 trips, a 2.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.19 scored and 1.00 conceded. Hangzhou Greentown's scoring rate against Wuhan Three Towns's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 games (1.86 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 38W 12D 13L in their last 63 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.03 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
2
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 6, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 39%, Wuhan Three Towns 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 64% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Wuhan Three Towns?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Wuhan Three Towns 3-1 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.41 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.58 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.35 / defence 0.90 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.14 / defence 1.17, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 20% | Wuhan Three Towns 24%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 56%, Wuhan Three Towns 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.86 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.