Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Tianjin Teda at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 December 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 6W 3D 1L at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 2.30 PPG, Tianjin Teda 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 48% versus Tianjin Teda 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hangzhou Greentown 36% | Tianjin Teda 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.46 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.080 / defence 0.838 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.096 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.385. Data: 31 Hangzhou Greentown games / 45 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 40% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 31%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Tianjin Teda 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Tianjin Teda 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 23 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 40% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.46 / Tianjin Teda 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.080 / def 0.838 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.096 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Tianjin Teda xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 07:00 on Friday 23 December 2022 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 40% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.08x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
40%
2.51
29%
3.47
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.73
1.27
Tianjin Teda xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
7%
13.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.27 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 17W 12D 4L from 33 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 10L across 33 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.91 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 9W 5D 2L from 16 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 8W 3D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.42 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Tianjin Teda in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 17W 12D 4L in their last 33 games (1.91 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 16W 7D 10L in their last 33 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.00 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 31%, Tianjin Teda 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Hangzhou Greentown and 38% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 44% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 38% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hangzhou Greentown's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda finished level at 0-0 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.46 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.27 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Tianjin Teda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.08 / defence 0.84 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 31/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 40% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 31%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 36%, Tianjin Teda 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.91 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.