Hangzhou Greentown 0-2 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Shenzhen Ruby FC travel to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium to take on Hangzhou Greentown. The game is scheduled for Thursday 3 November 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Hangzhou Greentown have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (24 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (24 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 46% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 33% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.09 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.092 / defence 0.770 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.896 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.295. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 22 Hangzhou Greentown games / 36 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 65% | Draw 20% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Hangzhou Greentown 20% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 65% | Draw 20% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.09 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.092 / def 0.770 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.896 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 3 November 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 2 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 65% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (1 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hangzhou Greentown's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
65%
1.54
20%
5.01
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.98
0.89
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
2%
53.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.89 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown come into this having played 24 games, going 11W 10D 3L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (8W 3D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hangzhou Greentown's home form reads 6W 3D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 11W 10D 3L in their last 24 games (1.79 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 8W 3D 13L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.10 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
0
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-5 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 20%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 60% (Shenzhen Ruby FC).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; Hangzhou Greentown have failed to score in 30% of games; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 60% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 60% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shenzhen Ruby FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Hangzhou Greentown 0-2 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.09 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Shenzhen Ruby FC outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.09 / defence 0.77 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.37, drawn from 22/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 65% | Draw 20% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 15%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Shenzhen Ruby FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 33%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.