Hangzhou Greentown 2-4 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Hangzhou Dragon Stadium to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium than their overall form suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Hangzhou Greentown, 1.80 for SHANGHAI SIPG — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 2W, SHANGHAI SIPG 3W, 4D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 66% and SHANGHAI SIPG 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.22 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.365 / defence 1.051 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.157 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.352. Hangzhou Greentown carry an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Hangzhou Greentown games / 56 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Draw 22% | SHANGHAI SIPG 28%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.57. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Hangzhou Dragon Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Draw 22% | SHANGHAI SIPG 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.22 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.365 / def 1.051 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.157 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.65
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 50% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (9 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 4 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hangzhou Greentown's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.16x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
50%
1.99
22%
4.57
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.87
1.65
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
11%
9.21
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
3%
32.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.65 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 20W 18D 18L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 30W 14D 12L from 56 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hangzhou Greentown.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.79 PPG from 28 outings (13W 11D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 16W 5D 7L from 28 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.00 scored and 1.38 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 77%.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 20W 18D 18L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 30W 14D 12L in their last 56 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.79 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
4
Draws
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Hangzhou Greentown, 79% for SHANGHAI SIPG — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Hangzhou Greentown and 75% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 79% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 75% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-4 at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.22 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.65 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.65 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.36 / defence 1.05 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Draw 22% | SHANGHAI SIPG 28%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 70%, SHANGHAI SIPG 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.