Guangzhou R&F 2-4 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 to face Guangzhou R&F in Super League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 20 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Guangzhou R&F's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou R&F's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Super League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Hangzhou Greentown have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hangzhou Greentown arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.00 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.733 / defence 1.257 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.793 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.076. Guangzhou R&F's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Guangzhou R&F games / 4 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 31% | Draw 34% | Hangzhou Greentown 35%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 31% | Draw 34% | Hangzhou Greentown 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.00 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.733 / def 1.257 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.793 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Hangzhou Greentown xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 20 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Guangzhou R&F 2 - 4 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 31% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guangzhou R&F's attack rating (0.73) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.79x) against Guangzhou R&F's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 18/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
31%
3.21
34%
2.92
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
2.08
1.07
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.07 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Guangzhou R&F have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D. It's still early in the season for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Guangzhou R&F against 2.00 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guangzhou R&F are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 0.50 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Guangzhou R&F have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 0%.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Early Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Guangzhou R&F have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Guangzhou R&F or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou R&F have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guangzhou R&F
0
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2022, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou R&F and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou R&F play Hangzhou Greentown?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Guangzhou R&F's recent matches and 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou R&F vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Guangzhou R&F's recent games and 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou R&F and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Guangzhou R&F have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Guangzhou R&F.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Guangzhou R&F 2-4 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.00 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.07 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Guangzhou R&F beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 0.73 / defence 1.26 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 18/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 31% | Draw 34% | Hangzhou Greentown 35%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou R&F 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou R&F 2.00 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Guangzhou R&F shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.