Guangzhou R&F 5-0 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou R&F at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan meet at Yuexiushan Stadium in Super League, Championship Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Guangzhou R&F's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou R&F's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 games at Yuexiushan Stadium this term (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Beijing Guoan arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Guangzhou R&F goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou R&F 50% versus Beijing Guoan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou R&F 44% | Beijing Guoan 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.48 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 1.104 / defence 1.310 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.744 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Guangzhou R&F games / 14 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 40% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 30%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Beijing Guoan 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guangzhou R&F as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beijing Guoan (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guangzhou R&F if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou R&F 75% | Beijing Guoan 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 40% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.48 / Beijing Guoan 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 1.104 / def 1.310 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.744 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou R&F (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Beijing Guoan xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan?
Guangzhou R&F 5 - 0 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 40% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou R&F the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan in?
Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Guangzhou R&F's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.74x) against Guangzhou R&F's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou R&F Win
40%
2.47
30%
3.37
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
2.74
1.25
Beijing Guoan xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.25 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guangzhou R&F come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 6D 5L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (8W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Guangzhou R&F against 1.69 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Guangzhou R&F's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Attack vs Defence
Guangzhou R&F are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.31 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Beijing Guoan in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Guangzhou R&F have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou R&F at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Guangzhou R&F's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou R&F at home: 1.12 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Guangzhou R&F or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou R&F have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guangzhou R&F won 5-0 on 19 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guangzhou R&F have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guangzhou R&F
1
Draws
2
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 1-2 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou R&F 75%, Beijing Guoan 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Guangzhou R&F) and 50% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou R&F play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Guangzhou R&F's games and 50% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Guangzhou R&F's matches and 50% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Guangzhou R&F have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guangzhou R&F run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou R&F beat Beijing Guoan 5-0 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.48 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.25 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Guangzhou R&F beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beijing Guoan landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 1.10 / defence 1.31 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 40% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 30%, with Guangzhou R&F to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou R&F 44%, Beijing Guoan 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou R&F 1.31 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guangzhou R&F win broke the near-deadlock. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.