Guangzhou Evergrande FC 4-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Guangzhou Evergrande FC welcome Shenzhen Ruby FC to Huadu Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Huadu Stadium, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are significantly better at Huadu Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) versus 1.00 (Shenzhen Ruby FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, 1 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.28 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.756 / defence 1.002 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.939 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.320. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Guangzhou Evergrande FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 26 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 37% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 37% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.28 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.756 / def 1.002 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.939 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 4 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 37% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (2 meetings): Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.60
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.24
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.24 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guangzhou Evergrande FC come into this having played 34 games, going 15W 5D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.41 PPG from 34 outings (14W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guangzhou Evergrande FC on 1.47 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home form reads 9W 3D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.41 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 15W 5D 14L in their last 34 games (1.47 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 14W 6D 14L in their last 34 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 1.76 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0
Draws
2
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2022, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 71% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's games and 71% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's matches and 71% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guangzhou Evergrande FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 4-1 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.28 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.24 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.00 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 37% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 35%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.47 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guangzhou Evergrande FC win broke the near-deadlock. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.