Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-1 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guangzhou Evergrande FC host Chongqing Lifan at Tianhe Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 July 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — All Games: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Guangzhou Evergrande FC have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Super League games this season, Chongqing Lifan have recorded 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chongqing Lifan have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Chongqing Lifan in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% versus Chongqing Lifan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 20% | Chongqing Lifan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.29 xG and Chongqing Lifan 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.119 / defence 1.104 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.751 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 0.889 / away 1.109. Chongqing Lifan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Guangzhou Evergrande FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 5 Chongqing Lifan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% | Draw 36% | Chongqing Lifan 23%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Chongqing Lifan 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% | Chongqing Lifan 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% | Draw 36% | Chongqing Lifan 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.29 / Chongqing Lifan 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.119 / def 1.104 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.751 / def 1.295 | league avg home 0.889 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Chongqing Lifan xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3 - 1 Chongqing Lifan.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 41% chance of winning, Chongqing Lifan a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chongqing Lifan will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chongqing Lifan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chongqing Lifan in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Chongqing Lifan's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Lifan's attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
41%
2.42
36%
2.79
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.21
0.92
Chongqing Lifan xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chongqing Lifan expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 0.92 for Chongqing Lifan, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 2W 2D 1L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chongqing Lifan's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chongqing Lifan.
The Goals Picture
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Lifan are on 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chongqing Lifan in 60%.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Early Season
Chongqing Lifan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chongqing Lifan in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Chongqing Lifan have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Chongqing Lifan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Chongqing Lifan in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chongqing Lifan runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0
Draws
0
Chongqing Lifan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chongqing Lifan?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, Chongqing Lifan have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chongqing Lifan last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2021, when Chongqing Lifan 1-5 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chongqing Lifan?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chongqing Lifan see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40%, Chongqing Lifan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 60% (Chongqing Lifan).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chongqing Lifan in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Chongqing Lifan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Chongqing Lifan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 60% of Chongqing Lifan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 60% of Chongqing Lifan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chongqing Lifan tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Chongqing Lifan in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chongqing Lifan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Chongqing Lifan 3-1 at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.29 xG and Chongqing Lifan 0.92 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against Chongqing Lifan attack 0.75 / defence 1.29, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% | Draw 36% | Chongqing Lifan 23%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 20%, Chongqing Lifan 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Guangzhou Evergrande FC scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Chongqing Lifan shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.