Dalian Zhixing 0-3 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dalian Zhixing face Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 May 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 0.93 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.816 / defence 0.950 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.023 / defence 0.663. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.437. Shanghai Shenhua bring a tight defence (rating 0.663, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dalian Zhixing's projected output down. Data: built from Dalian Zhixing's last 12 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 42.
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 25% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 4.06 | Draw 3.58 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.11. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, matchday 13 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 25% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Dalian Zhixing 0.93 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.816 / def 0.950 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.023 / def 0.663 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Shanghai Shenhua xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua FAQs
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Dalian Zhixing 0 - 3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Super League fixture (matchday 13) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 25% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dalian Zhixing's attack at 0.82x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.02x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Dalian Zhixing's last 12 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
25%
4.06
28%
3.58
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.33
1.40
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
6%
16.39
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.7 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.40 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Dalian Zhixing (Home) vs Shanghai Shenhua (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua, the earliest from May 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 28 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won Dalian Zhixing 0-3 Shanghai Shenhua on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Zhixing have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
3
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 June 2026: Dalian Zhixing 1-4 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Dalian Zhixing 0-3 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 0.93 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.40 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.02 / defence 0.66, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 25% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.