Dalian Aerbin 0-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Puwan Stadium plays host to Dalian Aerbin versus Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Tuesday 4 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin at Puwan Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Dalian Aerbin, 1.20 for Tianjin Teda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Dalian Aerbin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 52% versus Tianjin Teda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 50% | Tianjin Teda 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.49 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.145 / defence 1.028 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.845 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.300. Data: 32 Dalian Aerbin games / 32 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 45% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 28%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 3.57. Dalian Aerbin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 80% | Tianjin Teda 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 45% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.49 / Tianjin Teda 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.145 / def 1.028 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.845 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Tianjin Teda xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 45% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda?
Record (2 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 2W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 1.15x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.84x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
45%
2.25
28%
3.63
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.62
1.13
Tianjin Teda xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
6%
15.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.13 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 9D 20L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 11W 11D 18L from 40 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 1.10 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 6W 6D 9L from 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 11W 9D 20L in their last 40 games (1.05 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.24 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 0-3 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 3, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Tianjin Teda 1-0 Dalian Aerbin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 57%, Tianjin Teda 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dalian Aerbin) and 29% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 43% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 29% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Dalian Aerbin 0-2 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.49 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.13 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 45% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 28%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 50%, Tianjin Teda 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (40 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (40 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.05 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.