Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dalian Aerbin face Shandong Luneng.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Aerbin host Shandong Luneng at Puwan Stadium in Super League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 23 September 2023 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Dalian Aerbin — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Shandong Luneng have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Shandong Luneng have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Shandong Luneng's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Dalian Aerbin's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Shandong Luneng have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Dalian Aerbin. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Jun 2023, ended Dalian Aerbin 0–2 Shandong Luneng — a Shandong Luneng win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Shandong Luneng in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 59% versus Shandong Luneng 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 56% | Shandong Luneng 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dalian Aerbin surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Shandong Luneng have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.751 / defence 1.082 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.022 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.193. Dalian Aerbin's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 59 games and Shandong Luneng's last 59.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 43%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.49 | Draw 3.52 | Shandong Luneng 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 70% (last 10 home games) | Shandong Luneng 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, matchday 26 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.03 / Shandong Luneng 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.751 / def 1.082 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.022 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Shandong Luneng xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng is a Super League fixture (matchday 26) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 29% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 59 games and Shandong Luneng's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.52
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.35
1.32
Shandong Luneng xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
8%
13.05
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.32 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Aerbin come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 18D 25L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 2.12 PPG from 59 outings (38W 11D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dalian Aerbin's home form reads 10W 11D 8L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.62 points per game from their last 29 away games (13W 8D 8L). That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.29 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Shandong Luneng (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 16W 18D 25L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 38W 11D 10L in their last 59 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.41 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 23 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jun 2022, when Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
3
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 September 2023: Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dalian Aerbin at 69%, Shandong Luneng at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Dalian Aerbin) and 55% (Shandong Luneng).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 62% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 55% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 66% of Shandong Luneng's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dalian Aerbin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng finished level at 0-0 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.32 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.75 / defence 1.08 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 43%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 56%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.