Dalian Aerbin 0-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hebei Zhongji at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hebei Zhongji make the trip to Kunshan Sports Center Stadium to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 April 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.03 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.966 / defence 1.220 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.925 / away 1.447. Data: 1 Dalian Aerbin games / 1 Hebei Zhongji games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 22% | Draw 33% | Hebei Zhongji 44%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Hebei Zhongji 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hebei Zhongji as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hebei Zhongji if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Apr 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 22% | Draw 33% | Hebei Zhongji 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.03 / Hebei Zhongji 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.966 / def 1.220 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.925 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Hebei Zhongji (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Hebei Zhongji xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 28 April 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 22% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hebei Zhongji the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (0.97) and Hebei Zhongji's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.85x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hebei Zhongji Win
22%
4.50
33%
3.00
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.53
1.50
Hebei Zhongji xG
4.50
22%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
5%
20.18
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.50 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Pre-Season
Hebei Zhongji
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Dalian Aerbin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 1-4 on 30 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
2
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 1-4 Dalian Aerbin.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Hebei Zhongji edge out Dalian Aerbin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hebei Zhongji beat Dalian Aerbin 0-1 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.03 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.50 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.97 / defence 1.22 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 22% | Draw 33% | Hebei Zhongji 44%, with Hebei Zhongji to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.