Chengdu Better City 1-0 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun meet at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park in Super League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 May 2023 at 08:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.80 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.343 / defence 1.016 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.738 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.317. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Chengdu Better City games / 9 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 54% | Draw 29% | Nantong Zhiyun 18%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Nantong Zhiyun 5.56. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 08:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 54% | Draw 29% | Nantong Zhiyun 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.80 / Nantong Zhiyun 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.343 / def 1.016 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.738 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Nantong Zhiyun xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 08:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 0 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 54% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Chengdu Better City home split: 2.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.34) and Nantong Zhiyun's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (0.74x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
54%
1.86
29%
3.51
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.79
0.99
Nantong Zhiyun xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
3%
33.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.99 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Chengdu Better City have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
0
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 7 July 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Nantong Zhiyun 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Nantong Zhiyun 1-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.80 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.99 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nantong Zhiyun landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.34 / defence 1.02 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.74 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 54% | Draw 29% | Nantong Zhiyun 18%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.