Chengdu Better City 1-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Relegation Round sees Dalian Aerbin travel to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium to take on Chengdu Better City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 January 2022, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.28 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.844 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Chengdu Better City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Chengdu Better City games / 14 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 35% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 34%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Dalian Aerbin 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 35% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.28 / Dalian Aerbin 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.844 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dalian Aerbin xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin is a Relegation Round fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 35% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Dalian Aerbin away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Dalian Aerbin's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.21
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.52
1.25
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.25 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
Dalian Aerbin
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Dec 2022, when Chengdu Better City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2023, when Chengdu Better City 4-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin finished level at 1-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Relegation Round, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.28 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.25 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.84 / defence 1.30, drawn from 0/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 35% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 34%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.