Changchun Yatai 0-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Suzhou City Sports Centre to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Thursday 29 April 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.96 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.970 / defence 1.150 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.863 / away 1.528. Data: 1 Changchun Yatai games / 1 Tianjin Teda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 22% | Draw 31% | Tianjin Teda 47%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Tianjin Teda 2.13. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Apr 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 22% | Draw 31% | Tianjin Teda 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.96 / Tianjin Teda 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.970 / def 1.150 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.863 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Tianjin Teda xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 29 April 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 22% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.97x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
22%
4.54
31%
3.26
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.46
1.49
Tianjin Teda xG
4.54
22%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
5%
20.20
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.49 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2021, when Changchun Yatai won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
6
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Changchun Yatai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Regular Season - 2, as Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.96 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.49 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Tianjin Teda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 22% | Draw 31% | Tianjin Teda 47%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.