Changchun Yatai 0-3 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun's People Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Changchun Yatai at Changchun's People Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Changchun's People Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, SHANGHAI SIPG are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2022, ended 0–4 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 54% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.80 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.049 / defence 1.167 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.055 / defence 0.558. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.299. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.558 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Changchun Yatai games / 43 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 17% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 54%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 5.88 | Draw 3.45 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 17% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.80 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.049 / def 1.167 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.055 / def 0.558 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.60
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 17% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (4 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.05x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
17%
6.05
29%
3.44
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.40
1.60
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
6.05
17%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
3%
29.95
25%
4.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.6 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.60 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 17D 17L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 1.96 PPG from 56 outings (33W 11D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 11W 9D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 1.68 points per game from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.73 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 22W 17D 17L in their last 56 games (1.48 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 33W 11D 12L in their last 56 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.50 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 18 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 46%, SHANGHAI SIPG 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Changchun Yatai) and 54% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 36%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 54% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 54% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Changchun Yatai 0-3 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.80 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.60 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.05 / defence 1.17 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 / defence 0.56, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 17% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 54%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, SHANGHAI SIPG 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.