Changchun Yatai 0-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Changchun Yatai face Meizhou Kejia.

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Analysis & Preview

Meizhou Kejia travel to Changchun Sports Center Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai in Super League (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time.

Form Guide

Changchun Yatai — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Changchun Yatai 1.10 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Changchun Yatai, 3 for Meizhou Kejia and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Aug 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 2–4 Meizhou Kejia — a Meizhou Kejia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Meizhou Kejia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Meizhou Kejia 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.16 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.872 / defence 1.043 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.750 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.358. Meizhou Kejia's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 37 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 36.

Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 30% | Meizhou Kejia 33%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.66 | Draw 3.37 | Meizhou Kejia 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — low conviction — though recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 80% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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