Changchun Yatai 3-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Changchun Yatai at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Dalian Aerbin travel to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021, 09:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 4W 2D 0L at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.17 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Changchun Yatai are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Changchun Yatai, 0 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2021, ended 2–1 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 54% versus Dalian Aerbin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 62% | Dalian Aerbin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.88 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.165 / defence 0.773 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.853 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.276. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Changchun Yatai's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 13 Changchun Yatai games / 13 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 60% | Draw 26% | Dalian Aerbin 14%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Dalian Aerbin 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 17% | Dalian Aerbin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 60% | Draw 26% | Dalian Aerbin 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.88 / Dalian Aerbin 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.165 / def 0.773 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.853 / def 1.462 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Dalian Aerbin xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 09:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Changchun Yatai 3 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 60% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (1 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.17) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.89
14%
6.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.72
0.84
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
6.93
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
2%
45.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.84 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 4D 2L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 0.54 PPG from 13 outings (2W 1D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.38 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Changchun Yatai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.85 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 games (1.92 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 2W 1D 10L in their last 13 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 2.33 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Changchun Yatai 17% BTTS, Dalian Aerbin 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Changchun Yatai) and 67% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 33% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 67% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Dalian Aerbin 3-1 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.88 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.84 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.17 / defence 0.77 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.85 / defence 1.46, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 60% | Draw 26% | Dalian Aerbin 14%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 62%, Dalian Aerbin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.54. That form edge translated into the three points. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.