Beijing Guoan 1-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Wuhua Hengpi Football Town to take on Beijing Guoan. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 June 2022, 09:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's home record at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beijing Guoan 1.50 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 54% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 46% | Tianjin Teda 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.29 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.995 / defence 1.113 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.949 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.091. Data: 16 Beijing Guoan games / 16 Tianjin Teda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 38% | Draw 30% | Tianjin Teda 31%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Tianjin Teda 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 80% | Tianjin Teda 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (16 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wuhua Hengpi Football Town • Kick-off: Monday 13 Jun 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 38% | Draw 30% | Tianjin Teda 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.29 / Tianjin Teda 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.995 / def 1.113 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.949 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Tianjin Teda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 09:30 on Monday 13 June 2022 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 38% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (0.99) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (16/16 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.28
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.45
1.15
Tianjin Teda xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.15 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 9W 6D 7L from 22 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 11L across 22 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 6W 5D 0L from 11 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 2W 4D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.82 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.09 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-4 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 73%, Tianjin Teda 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Beijing Guoan) and 27% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 36%; Tianjin Teda in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 36% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 27% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Tianjin Teda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Tianjin Teda 1-0 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.29 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.15 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/16 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 38% | Draw 30% | Tianjin Teda 31%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 46%, Tianjin Teda 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.