Beijing Guoan 3-3 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shandong Luneng make the trip to Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Beijing Guoan (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Shandong Luneng arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 58% versus Shandong Luneng 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 54% | Shandong Luneng 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.06 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.007 / defence 0.954 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.429 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.289. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Beijing Guoan games / 33 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 23% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 53%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Shandong Luneng 1.89. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 50% | Shandong Luneng 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 23% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.06 / Shandong Luneng 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.007 / def 0.954 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.429 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Shandong Luneng xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Beijing Guoan 3 - 3 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 23% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.01) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.43x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
23%
4.41
24%
4.19
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.82
1.76
Shandong Luneng xG
4.41
23%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
4%
25.54
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.76 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 17W 12D 12L from 41 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 30W 7D 4L across 41 games — 2.37 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beijing Guoan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 10W 8D 2L from 20 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 14W 2D 4L across 20 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.15 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 17W 12D 12L in their last 41 games (1.54 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 30W 7D 4L in their last 41 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.90 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 60%, Shandong Luneng 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Beijing Guoan) and 60% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Beijing Guoan's games and 50% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 60% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng drew 3-3 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.06 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.76 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.43 / defence 0.82, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 23% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 53%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 54%, Shandong Luneng 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.