Beijing Guoan 5-2 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun meet at Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Workers' Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nantong Zhiyun (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Beijing Guoan's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Nantong Zhiyun's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Nantong Zhiyun in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beijing Guoan lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Nantong Zhiyun — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 60% versus Nantong Zhiyun 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 50% | Nantong Zhiyun 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.39 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.346 / defence 1.002 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.972 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.471. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Beijing Guoan games / 43 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 21% | Nantong Zhiyun 21%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Nantong Zhiyun 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 60% | Nantong Zhiyun 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 21% | Nantong Zhiyun 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.39 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.346 / def 1.002 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.972 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Nantong Zhiyun xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Beijing Guoan 5 - 2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 58% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (2 meetings): Beijing Guoan 2W | Draws 0 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.35x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (0.97x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.86
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.82
1.43
Nantong Zhiyun xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
9%
10.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
2%
50.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.43 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 14W 9D 7L from 30 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Nantong Zhiyun, meanwhile, have gone 4W 10D 16L across 30 games — 0.73 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantong Zhiyun heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record stands at 2W 6D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.87 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 4W 10D 16L in their last 30 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.87 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Nantong Zhiyun been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nantong Zhiyun in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 5-2 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 60%, Nantong Zhiyun 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Beijing Guoan) and 33% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Beijing Guoan's games and 67% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Nantong Zhiyun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Nantong Zhiyun 5-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.39 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.43 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.35 / defence 1.00 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 21% | Nantong Zhiyun 21%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 50%, Nantong Zhiyun 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.