Beijing Guoan 0-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Beijing Guoan welcome Meizhou Kejia to Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 7 July 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 4D 1L at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 3W 4D 1L from 8 outings — 1.62 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 0.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in Super League this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Beijing Guoan) versus 1.62 (Meizhou Kejia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Beijing Guoan, 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 75% and Meizhou Kejia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 62% | Meizhou Kejia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.32 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.027 / defence 0.869 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.718 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.146. Data: 22 Beijing Guoan games / 8 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 50% | Draw 32% | Meizhou Kejia 19%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Meizhou Kejia 5.26. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Beijing Guoan 70% | Meizhou Kejia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Jul 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 50% | Draw 32% | Meizhou Kejia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.32 / Meizhou Kejia 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.027 / def 0.869 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.718 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Meizhou Kejia xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 10:30 on Thursday 7 July 2022 at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Beijing Guoan 0 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 50% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (1 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 1 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 0.88 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
50%
2.02
32%
3.15
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.03
0.71
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.71 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 3D 1L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.88 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.38 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Meizhou Kejia in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.75 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Beijing Guoan won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Beijing Guoan 5-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 50%, Meizhou Kejia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beijing Guoan) and 25% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 50% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 25% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Beijing Guoan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.32 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.71 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.72 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 50% | Draw 32% | Meizhou Kejia 19%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 62%, Meizhou Kejia 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.88 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.