Beijing Guoan 3-2 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Beijing Guoan welcome Meizhou Kejia to Workers' Stadium in Super League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 11 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Beijing Guoan have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Meizhou Kejia's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Beijing Guoan's games and 70% of Meizhou Kejia's (from Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Meizhou Kejia and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Jul 2023, ended Beijing Guoan 1–3 Meizhou Kejia — a Meizhou Kejia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus Meizhou Kejia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | Meizhou Kejia 56%). Note also that Meizhou Kejia surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Beijing Guoan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.60 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.291 / defence 0.953 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.756 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.420. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack rating of 1.291 — their 1.60 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Meizhou Kejia's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 40 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 39.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 50% | Draw 27% | Meizhou Kejia 23%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.01 | Draw 3.69 | Meizhou Kejia 4.32. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, matchday 11 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 50% | Draw 27% | Meizhou Kejia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Beijing Guoan 1.60 / Meizhou Kejia 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.291 / def 0.953 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.756 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Meizhou Kejia xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Beijing Guoan 3 - 2 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia is a Super League fixture (matchday 11) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 50% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 40 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.69
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.62
1.02
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
5%
21.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.02 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 64 games, going 31W 16D 17L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.30 PPG from 64 outings (23W 14D 27L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.70 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 16W 8D 8L across their last 32 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 0.91 points per game from their last 32 away games (7W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.33 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Meizhou Kejia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 games (1.70 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.75 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 22 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Jun 2025, when Beijing Guoan won Meizhou Kejia 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 November 2025: Beijing Guoan 5-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 56%, Meizhou Kejia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beijing Guoan) and 53% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 47% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 53% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 71% of Meizhou Kejia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Meizhou Kejia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Meizhou Kejia 3-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.60 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.02 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Meizhou Kejia outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.29 / defence 0.95 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.76 / defence 0.87, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 50% | Draw 27% | Meizhou Kejia 23%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, Meizhou Kejia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.70 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.