Beijing Guoan 4-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guangzhou Evergrande FC make the trip to Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Beijing Guoan. A 1.20 PPG lead over Guangzhou Evergrande FC (1.80 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beijing Guoan lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Guangzhou Evergrande FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 58% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 54% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.86 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.114 / defence 1.038 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.553 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.295. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Beijing Guoan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Beijing Guoan games / 35 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 64% | Draw 22% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 50% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 64% | Draw 22% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 44% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.86 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.114 / def 1.038 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.553 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Beijing Guoan 4 - 1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 64% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (2 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.11) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (0.55x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.53
14%
7.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.60
0.74
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
7.08
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
2%
45.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.74 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 13D 12L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC sit at 1.30 PPG from 43 outings (16W 8D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.30 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 10W 9D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (6W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 18W 13D 12L in their last 43 games (1.56 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 16W 8D 19L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.86 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 4-1 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 62%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Beijing Guoan) and 48% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 33% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 48% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 4-1 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.86 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.74 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.55 / defence 1.22, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 64% | Draw 22% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 14%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 54%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.56 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.