Beijing Guoan 8-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 68% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Workers' Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Beijing Guoan (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's home record at Workers' Stadium: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Workers' Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Beijing Guoan, 1.30 for Changchun Yatai — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Changchun Yatai in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Beijing Guoan, 2 for Changchun Yatai and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 2–3 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 62% and Changchun Yatai 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 55% | Changchun Yatai 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.42 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.105 / defence 0.812 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.939 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.778 / away 1.334. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Beijing Guoan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Beijing Guoan games / 56 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 68% | Draw 18% | Changchun Yatai 14%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Changchun Yatai 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 60% | Changchun Yatai 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 68% | Draw 18% | Changchun Yatai 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 58% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.42 / Changchun Yatai 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.105 / def 0.812 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.939 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.778 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Changchun Yatai xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai?
Beijing Guoan 8 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 68% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai?
Record (7 meetings): Beijing Guoan 4W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 2W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.10x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.94x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.68
14%
7.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.43
1.02
Changchun Yatai xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.68
18%
Draw
7.05
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
9%
11.20
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
1%
78.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.02 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 27W 16D 13L from 56 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 24L across 56 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 16W 6D 5L from 27 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 5W 7D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.48 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Changchun Yatai in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 27W 16D 13L in their last 56 games (1.73 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 17W 15D 24L in their last 56 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.00 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 8-1 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 7, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Changchun Yatai 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 63%, Changchun Yatai 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Beijing Guoan) and 59% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Beijing Guoan's games and 59% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 59% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 8-1 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Changchun Yatai 8-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.42 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.02 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 8-1 for 9 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 5.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.10 / defence 0.81 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 68% | Draw 18% | Changchun Yatai 14%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 55%, Changchun Yatai 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.