Union La Calera 3-2 Curico Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Curico Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Curico Unido make the trip to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to face Union La Calera in Primera División, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Union La Calera (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union La Calera have posted 5W 5D 0L at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Curico Unido have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Curico Unido's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Union La Calera. A 0.60 PPG lead over Curico Unido (2.00 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Curico Unido in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union La Calera lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Curico Unido winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Union La Calera — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Curico Unido — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 53% versus Curico Unido 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 48% | Curico Unido 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 2.00 xG and Curico Unido 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.235 / defence 1.034 | Curico Unido attack 0.988 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.137. Data: 33 Union La Calera games / 33 Curico Unido games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 57% | Draw 21% | Curico Unido 22%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Curico Unido 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Union La Calera (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 60% | Curico Unido 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Curico Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 57% | Draw 21% | Curico Unido 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Union La Calera 2.00 / Curico Unido 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.235 / def 1.034 | Curico Unido attack 0.988 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Curico Unido xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Curico Unido kick off?
Union La Calera vs Curico Unido kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Union La Calera 3 - 2 Curico Unido.
Where is Union La Calera vs Curico Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Curico Unido part of?
Union La Calera vs Curico Unido is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 57% chance of winning, Curico Unido a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union La Calera and Curico Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Curico Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Curico Unido?
Record (4 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 2 | Curico Unido 1W.
What form are Union La Calera and Curico Unido in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 1.24x the league average against Curico Unido's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Curico Unido's attack (0.99x) against Union La Calera's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.65
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
3.16
1.16
Curico Unido xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.65
21%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
3%
34.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Curico Unido expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.16 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 24W 18D 20L from 62 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Curico Unido, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 18L across 62 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Union La Calera against 1.39 for Curico Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 13W 9D 9L from 31 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Curico Unido's away record stands at 7W 14D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union La Calera are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Curico Unido are on 1.37 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Curico Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Curico Unido in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 24W 18D 20L in their last 62 games (1.45 PPG), while Curico Unido have gone 21W 23D 18L in their last 62 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Curico Unido away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.55 PPG; Curico Unido away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Curico Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Curico Unido in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Union La Calera have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union La Calera won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union La Calera have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Curico Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Union La Calera
2
Draws
1
Curico Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Curico Unido?
From 6 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 3, Curico Unido have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Curico Unido last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2023, when Curico Unido 0-3 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Curico Unido?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 52%, Curico Unido 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Union La Calera) and 39% (Curico Unido).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Curico Unido in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Curico Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Curico Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Union La Calera's games and 61% of Curico Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Curico Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Union La Calera's recent games and 39% of Curico Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Curico Unido tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Curico Unido in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Curico Unido 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Curico Unido 3-2 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 2.00 xG and Curico Unido 1.16 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Curico Unido outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.24 / defence 1.03 against Curico Unido attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 57% | Draw 21% | Curico Unido 22%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, Curico Unido 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Curico Unido's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.45 PPG, Curico Unido 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Curico Unido (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.