Union La Calera 0-0 Curico Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Curico Unido at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Curico Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Curico Unido make the trip to Estadio Sausalito to face Union La Calera in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 11 April 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Union La Calera (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union La Calera have posted 2W 1D 7L at Estadio Sausalito — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Curico Unido have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Curico Unido's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Union La Calera against 1.40 for Curico Unido. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union La Calera lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Union La Calera — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Curico Unido — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 56% versus Curico Unido 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | Curico Unido 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.12 xG and Curico Unido 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.866 / defence 1.194 | Curico Unido attack 1.088 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.117. Data: 40 Union La Calera games / 40 Curico Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 29% | Draw 26% | Curico Unido 45%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Curico Unido 2.22. Curico Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Curico Unido are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Curico Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 50% | Curico Unido 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Curico Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Monday 11 Apr 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 29% | Draw 26% | Curico Unido 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Union La Calera 1.12 / Curico Unido 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.866 / def 1.194 | Curico Unido attack 1.088 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Curico Unido (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Curico Unido xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Curico Unido kick off?
Union La Calera vs Curico Unido kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 11 April 2022 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Union La Calera 0 - 0 Curico Unido.
Where is Union La Calera vs Curico Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Curico Unido part of?
Union La Calera vs Curico Unido is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 29% chance of winning, Curico Unido a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Curico Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union La Calera and Curico Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Curico Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Curico Unido?
Record (2 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 1 | Curico Unido 0W.
What form are Union La Calera and Curico Unido in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.87x the league average against Curico Unido's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Curico Unido's attack (1.09x) against Union La Calera's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Curico Unido Win
29%
3.43
26%
3.83
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.57
1.45
Curico Unido xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.62
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Curico Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.45 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 15W 6D 11L from 32 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Curico Unido, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 11L across 32 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union La Calera by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Curico Unido heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 7W 2D 7L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Curico Unido's away record stands at 4W 5D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union La Calera are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Curico Unido are on 1.16 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Curico Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Curico Unido in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 15W 6D 11L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Curico Unido have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Curico Unido away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.44 PPG; Curico Unido away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Union La Calera have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union La Calera won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union La Calera have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Curico Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Union La Calera
2
Draws
1
Curico Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Curico Unido?
From 6 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 3, Curico Unido have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Curico Unido last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2023, when Curico Unido 0-3 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Curico Unido?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Curico Unido 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Union La Calera) and 38% (Curico Unido).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Curico Unido in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Curico Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Curico Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 50% of Curico Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Curico Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Union La Calera's recent games and 38% of Curico Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Curico Unido tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Curico Unido in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union La Calera's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera and Curico Unido finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.12 xG and Curico Unido 1.45 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union La Calera fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Curico Unido landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Curico Unido attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 29% | Draw 26% | Curico Unido 45%, with Curico Unido to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, Curico Unido 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Curico Unido's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union La Calera arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Curico Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.