Union La Calera 2-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar plays host to Union La Calera versus Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union La Calera have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union La Calera have posted 3W 7D 0L at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Coquimbo Unido (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Union La Calera's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Coquimbo Unido's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Coquimbo Unido in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Union La Calera, 1 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 2–3 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union La Calera — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 52% versus Coquimbo Unido 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 44% | Coquimbo Unido 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.89 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.015 / defence 1.047 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.687 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.123. Coquimbo Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Union La Calera games / 25 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 63% | Draw 22% | Coquimbo Unido 15%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Coquimbo Unido 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Union La Calera (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Union La Calera 60% | Coquimbo Unido 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 63% | Draw 22% | Coquimbo Unido 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 47% | xG Union La Calera 1.89 / Coquimbo Unido 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.015 / def 1.047 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.687 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Coquimbo Unido xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Union La Calera 2 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 63% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (1 meetings): Union La Calera 0W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 1W.
What form are Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union La Calera's attack rating (1.01) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.69x) against Union La Calera's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 57/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.61
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.70
0.81
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
2%
42.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.81 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 5W 12D 8L from 25 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 15L across 25 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Union La Calera against 0.80 for Coquimbo Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 3W 7D 2L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 0W 3D 9L across 12 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coquimbo Unido's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union La Calera are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.08 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 5W 12D 8L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 5W 5D 15L in their last 25 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.33 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union La Calera have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
1
Draws
6
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Union La Calera 1-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 58%, Coquimbo Unido 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Union La Calera) and 58% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Union La Calera's games and 58% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Union La Calera's recent games and 58% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union La Calera cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Coquimbo Unido 2-0 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.89 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.81 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.69 / defence 1.32, drawn from 57/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 63% | Draw 22% | Coquimbo Unido 15%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 44%, Coquimbo Unido 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.08 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.