Union Espanola 1-2 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates U. Catolica at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Espanola vs U. Catolica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union Espanola host U. Catolica at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Primera División (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 02:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union Espanola stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Espanola at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union Espanola are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
U. Catolica — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
U. Catolica's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour U. Catolica — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Union Espanola, 3 for U. Catolica and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended Union Espanola 2–2 U. Catolica — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Union Espanola in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
U. Catolica in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 52% versus U. Catolica 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 47% | U. Catolica 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Union Espanola surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while U. Catolica have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.44 xG and U. Catolica 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.485 / defence 1.161 | U. Catolica attack 0.989 / defence 0.657. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.299. Union Espanola carry an above-average attack rating of 1.485 — their 1.44 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. U. Catolica bring a tight defence (rating 0.657, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Union Espanola's projected output down. Data: built from Union Espanola's last 40 games and U. Catolica's last 40.
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 36% | Draw 25% | U. Catolica 39%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.74 | Draw 4.06 | U. Catolica 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Union Espanola's last 10 home games and U. Catolica's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Espanola 50% (last 10 home games) | U. Catolica 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, matchday 11 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 36% | Draw 25% | U. Catolica 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Union Espanola 1.44 / U. Catolica 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.485 / def 1.161 | U. Catolica attack 0.989 / def 0.657 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.49
U. Catolica xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Espanola vs U. Catolica FAQs
What time does Union Espanola vs U. Catolica kick off?
Union Espanola vs U. Catolica kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs U. Catolica?
Union Espanola 1 - 2 U. Catolica.
Where is Union Espanola vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs U. Catolica part of?
Union Espanola vs U. Catolica is a Primera División fixture (matchday 11) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 36% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union Espanola and U. Catolica will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Espanola vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (1.49) and U. Catolica's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Union Espanola's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Espanola's last 40 games and U. Catolica's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
36%
2.74
25%
4.06
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.93
1.49
U. Catolica xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Espanola vs U. Catolica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.49 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 20W 16D 24L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
U. Catolica's form line: 24W 15D 21L from 60 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Espanola on 1.27 PPG, U. Catolica on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 11D 8L).
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 11W 6D 13L from their last 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Union Espanola are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.48 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
U. Catolica
Current Season
Union Espanola (Home) vs U. Catolica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Espanola
Current Season
U. Catolica
Current Season
❓ Union Espanola vs U. Catolica Form FAQs
What form are Union Espanola and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or U. Catolica away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.47 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 24 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
U. Catolica have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Union Espanola's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Espanola
2
Draws
6
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Espanola vs U. Catolica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and U. Catolica?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Espanola have won 2, U. Catolica have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and U. Catolica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2025: U. Catolica 2-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 57%, U. Catolica 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Union Espanola and 77% for U. Catolica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Espanola keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Espanola vs U. Catolica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Espanola and U. Catolica matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Union Espanola's games and 57% of U. Catolica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Espanola and U. Catolica matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Union Espanola's matches and 77% of U. Catolica's.
Do Union Espanola and U. Catolica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Union Espanola's recent matches and 79% of U. Catolica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Union Espanola 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Union Espanola 1-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.44 xG and U. Catolica 1.49 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.49 / defence 1.16 against U. Catolica attack 0.99 / defence 0.66, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 36% | Draw 25% | U. Catolica 39%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 47%, U. Catolica 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.27 PPG, U. Catolica 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.