Union Espanola 3-0 Cobreloa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Cobreloa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 20 as Union Espanola welcome Cobreloa to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Union Espanola have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola's home record at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Union Espanola are significantly better at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK than their overall form suggests.
Cobreloa — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cobreloa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobreloa have posted 2W 1D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.78 conceded per game.
On current form, Union Espanola have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Union Espanola, 1 for Cobreloa and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Cobreloa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Union Espanola trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Cobreloa trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 63% versus Cobreloa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Espanola 68% | Cobreloa 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 2.81 xG and Cobreloa 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.304 / defence 1.192 | Cobreloa attack 0.874 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.233. Union Espanola carry an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — their λ of 2.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cobreloa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing Union Espanola's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Union Espanola games / 19 Cobreloa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 69% | Draw 16% | Cobreloa 15%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 1.45 | Draw 6.25 | Cobreloa 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Union Espanola (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.81 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Espanola are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.09 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union Espanola 60% | Cobreloa 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Cobreloa | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 69% | Draw 16% | Cobreloa 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 68% | xG Union Espanola 2.81 / Cobreloa 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.304 / def 1.192 | Cobreloa attack 0.874 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Cobreloa xG
68%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Cobreloa kick off?
Union Espanola vs Cobreloa kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Cobreloa?
Union Espanola 3 - 0 Cobreloa.
Where is Union Espanola vs Cobreloa being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Cobreloa part of?
Union Espanola vs Cobreloa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Cobreloa?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 69% chance of winning, Cobreloa a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Cobreloa?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Union Espanola and Cobreloa will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Cobreloa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Cobreloa?
Record (1 meetings): Union Espanola 0W | Draws 0 | Cobreloa 1W.
What form are Union Espanola and Cobreloa in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Cobreloa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (1.30) and Cobreloa's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cobreloa's attack versus Union Espanola's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
69%
1.45
16%
6.31
15%
6.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
4.09
1.28
Cobreloa xG
1.45
69%
Home win
6.31
16%
Draw
6.67
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
6%
16.61
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
1%
110.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Cobreloa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Cobreloa expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.28 for Cobreloa, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Cobreloa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 8W 5D 6L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobreloa's form line: 6W 3D 10L from 19 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Cobreloa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union Espanola are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobreloa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (6W 0D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Union Espanola are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cobreloa have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Espanola are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Cobreloa are on 1.16 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Blended
Cobreloa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Cobreloa in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 games (1.53 PPG), while Cobreloa have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Cobreloa away?
Union Espanola's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 2.00 PPG; Cobreloa away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Union Espanola
0
Draws
1
Cobreloa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Cobreloa?
From 2 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 1, Cobreloa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Cobreloa last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Union Espanola 3-0 Cobreloa.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Cobreloa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 67%, Cobreloa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Union Espanola and 67% for Cobreloa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cobreloa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Cobreloa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Cobreloa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union Espanola's games and 44% of Cobreloa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Cobreloa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Union Espanola's matches and 67% of Cobreloa's.
Do Union Espanola and Cobreloa tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cobreloa in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union Espanola run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cobreloa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Cobreloa 3-0 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 2.81 xG and Cobreloa 1.28 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cobreloa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.30 / defence 1.19 against Cobreloa attack 0.87 / defence 1.48, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 69% | Draw 16% | Cobreloa 15%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 68%, Cobreloa 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Cobreloa's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Espanola arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union Espanola (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Cobreloa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.