U. Catolica 0-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 6 as U. Catolica welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, U. Catolica have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
Everton de Vina — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
U. Catolica carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for U. Catolica, 0 for Everton de Vina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 3–0 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
U. Catolica trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Everton de Vina trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 50% versus Everton de Vina 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 69% | Everton de Vina 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.64 xG and Everton de Vina 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.194 / defence 0.774 | Everton de Vina attack 0.837 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.193. U. Catolica's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 U. Catolica games / 37 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 57% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 16%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Everton de Vina 6.25. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 50% | Everton de Vina 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 57% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG U. Catolica 1.64 / Everton de Vina 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.194 / def 0.774 | Everton de Vina attack 0.837 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Everton de Vina xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kick off?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica 0 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina part of?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 57% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both U. Catolica and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
Record (1 meetings): U. Catolica 1W | Draws 0 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 1.19x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.72
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.41
0.77
Everton de Vina xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
3%
31.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.77 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
U. Catolica's recent record stands at 22W 2D 8L from 32 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 13L across 32 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours U. Catolica by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, U. Catolica have managed 14W 2D 0L from 16 games — 2.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 4W 5D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
U. Catolica are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.91 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Everton de Vina in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 22W 2D 8L in their last 32 games (2.12 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Everton de Vina away?
U. Catolica's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 2.75 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.06 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when U. Catolica won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
3
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when U. Catolica 2-2 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 50%, Everton de Vina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (U. Catolica) and 25% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 44% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of U. Catolica's recent games and 25% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat U. Catolica 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat U. Catolica 0-1 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.64 xG and Everton de Vina 0.77 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. U. Catolica fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.19 / defence 0.77 against Everton de Vina attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 57% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 16%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Everton de Vina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 69%, Everton de Vina 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Everton de Vina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.