Palestino 2-0 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 25 as Palestino welcome Deportes Iquique to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Palestino — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palestino's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Palestino are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Iquique have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Deportes Iquique have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Deportes Iquique's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Palestino's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Palestino, 1 for Deportes Iquique and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Deportes Iquique winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palestino trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Deportes Iquique trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Palestino 46% and Deportes Iquique 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 46% | Deportes Iquique 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 2.06 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.185 / defence 0.988 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.161 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.180. Data: 54 Palestino games / 24 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 54% | Draw 21% | Deportes Iquique 25%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Deportes Iquique 4.00. Palestino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palestino at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Deportes Iquique (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palestino 50% | Deportes Iquique 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 54% | Draw 21% | Deportes Iquique 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Palestino 2.06 / Deportes Iquique 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.185 / def 0.988 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.161 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Palestino (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Deportes Iquique xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Palestino vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Deportes Iquique?
Palestino 2 - 0 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Palestino vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Palestino vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 54% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Palestino and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Deportes Iquique?
Record (1 meetings): Palestino 0W | Draws 0 | Deportes Iquique 1W.
What form are Palestino and Deportes Iquique in?
Palestino (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Deportes Iquique (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palestino's attack rating (1.19) and Deportes Iquique's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Iquique's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
54%
1.86
21%
4.71
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Palestino xG
Total xG
3.41
1.35
Deportes Iquique xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
13%
7.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
3%
31.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Palestino and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Palestino and 1.35 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palestino come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 7D 8L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Iquique sit at 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (11W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palestino on 1.42 PPG, Deportes Iquique on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Palestino's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Iquique have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Iquique's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palestino are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Deportes Iquique are on 1.83 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique in 83%.
Defensively: Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Deportes Iquique
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Deportes Iquique in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 9W 7D 8L in their last 24 games (1.42 PPG), while Deportes Iquique have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Deportes Iquique away?
Palestino's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.64 PPG; Deportes Iquique away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Palestino or Deportes Iquique been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Deportes Iquique in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palestino and Deportes Iquique runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 8 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palestino have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Palestino's record when hosting Deportes Iquique specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Palestino
0
Draws
1
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, Palestino have won 3, Deportes Iquique have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when Palestino 2-0 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Deportes Iquique?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 46%, Deportes Iquique 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Palestino and 91% for Deportes Iquique. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Palestino have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Deportes Iquique?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Palestino's games and 82% of Deportes Iquique's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palestino vs Deportes Iquique usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Palestino's matches and 91% of Deportes Iquique's.
Do Palestino and Deportes Iquique tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Deportes Iquique in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palestino cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Deportes Iquique.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Deportes Iquique 2-0 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 2.06 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.35 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Deportes Iquique landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.19 / defence 0.99 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.16 / defence 1.16, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 54% | Draw 21% | Deportes Iquique 25%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 46%, Deportes Iquique 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.42 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.