Palestino 5-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palestino at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to face Palestino in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 July 2022 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Palestino's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palestino have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Coquimbo Unido have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 6L across 8 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Palestino's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Coquimbo Unido's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palestino lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Palestino half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Coquimbo Unido half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 47% versus Coquimbo Unido 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 41% | Coquimbo Unido 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.90 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 0.977 / defence 0.999 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.685 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 0.981. Coquimbo Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Palestino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Palestino games / 17 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 65% | Draw 24% | Coquimbo Unido 11%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | Coquimbo Unido 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Palestino (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Palestino 50% | Coquimbo Unido 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 65% | Draw 24% | Coquimbo Unido 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 43% | xG Palestino 1.90 / Coquimbo Unido 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 0.977 / def 0.999 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.685 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.467 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Palestino (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Coquimbo Unido xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 18:15 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Palestino 5 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 65% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 11% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Palestino and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (1 meetings): Palestino 0W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido in?
Palestino (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palestino's attack at 0.98x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.69x) against Palestino's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 49/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
65%
1.53
24%
4.25
11%
8.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.57
0.67
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
8.98
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
33%
2.99
2%
59.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Palestino and 0.67 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palestino's recent record stands at 6W 8D 3L from 17 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 10L across 17 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palestino by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Coquimbo Unido heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palestino have managed 5W 2D 1L from 8 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Palestino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coquimbo Unido's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palestino are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.12 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 65%.
Defensively: Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 6W 8D 3L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Palestino's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 2.12 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Palestino or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palestino won 5-1 on 16 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palestino have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palestino
5
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Palestino 2-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 38%, Coquimbo Unido 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Palestino) and 50% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Palestino's recent matches and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Palestino's recent games and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palestino run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Coquimbo Unido 5-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.90 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.67 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Palestino beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.69 / defence 1.32, drawn from 49/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 65% | Draw 24% | Coquimbo Unido 11%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 41%, Coquimbo Unido 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palestino arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.