O'Higgins 0-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates O'Higgins at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio El Teniente to face O'Higgins in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 March 2023 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
O'Higgins's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
O'Higgins at Estadio El Teniente this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente.
Coquimbo Unido (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. O'Higgins's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Coquimbo Unido's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for O'Higgins, 0 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with O'Higgins winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
O'Higgins — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — O'Higgins 40% versus Coquimbo Unido 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (O'Higgins 40% | Coquimbo Unido 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 1.69 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 1.009 / defence 0.914 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.968 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.265. Data: 37 O'Higgins games / 38 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 50% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 24%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Coquimbo Unido 4.17. O'Higgins hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, O'Higgins are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on O'Higgins if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: O'Higgins 40% | Coquimbo Unido 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 50% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG O'Higgins 1.69 / Coquimbo Unido 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 1.009 / def 0.914 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.968 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: O'Higgins (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Coquimbo Unido xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
O'Higgins 0 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 50% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making O'Higgins the favourite.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (2 meetings): O'Higgins 2W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido in?
O'Higgins (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates O'Higgins's attack at 1.01x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.97x) against O'Higgins's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
O'Higgins Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.76
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
2.81
1.12
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
4%
22.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for O'Higgins and 1.12 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, O'Higgins have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 11W 11D 8L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 7W 6D 17L from 30 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, O'Higgins are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coquimbo Unido.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, O'Higgins have posted 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (8W 6D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — O'Higgins are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 2W 3D 10L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, O'Higgins come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
O'Higgins are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.07 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: O'Higgins have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
O'Higgins have gone 11W 11D 8L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — O'Higgins at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
O'Higgins's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — O'Higgins at home: 2.00 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.60 PPG.
Have O'Higgins or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
O'Higgins have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, O'Higgins have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
O'Higgins
2
Draws
5
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, O'Higgins have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 0-0 O'Higgins.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — O'Higgins 53%, Coquimbo Unido 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (O'Higgins) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: O'Higgins keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when O'Higgins play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of O'Higgins's recent matches and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of O'Higgins's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
O'Higgins have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over O'Higgins.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat O'Higgins 0-2 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.69 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.12 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. O'Higgins fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 50% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 24%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 40%, Coquimbo Unido 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
O'Higgins's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, O'Higgins arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Coquimbo Unido winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. O'Higgins (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.