Everton de Vina 0-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union Espanola make the trip to Estadio Sausalito to face Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Espanola have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Union Espanola are 0.50 PPG clear of Everton de Vina in recent Primera División fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Everton de Vina have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with Union Espanola managing just 2 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2025, ended 3–0 with Everton de Vina winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Everton de Vina and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Union Espanola — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 61% versus Union Espanola 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 52% | Union Espanola 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.49 xG and Union Espanola 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.915 / defence 1.096 | Union Espanola attack 0.803 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.125. Data: 54 Everton de Vina games / 55 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 25%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Union Espanola 4.00. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Everton de Vina dominate the H2H record, yet Union Espanola are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Espanola (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 70% | Union Espanola 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Everton de Vina 1.49 / Union Espanola 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.915 / def 1.096 | Union Espanola attack 0.803 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Union Espanola xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Everton de Vina 0 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola part of?
Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 49% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Everton de Vina and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
Record (9 meetings): Everton de Vina 5W | Draws 2 | Union Espanola 2W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Union Espanola (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Union Espanola's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.80x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.83
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.48
0.99
Union Espanola xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.99 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 16D 21L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.20 PPG from 54 outings (19W 8D 27L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.20 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Everton de Vina's home form reads 8W 11D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (6W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.50 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 19W 8D 27L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Union Espanola away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.30 PPG; Union Espanola away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton de Vina won 0-3 on 19 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 5, Union Espanola have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Union Espanola see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 52%, Union Espanola 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Everton de Vina) and 48% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 30% of games; Union Espanola in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 44% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 48% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 26, as Everton de Vina and Union Espanola drew 0-0 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.49 xG and Union Espanola 0.99 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Union Espanola landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Union Espanola attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 25%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 52%, Union Espanola 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union Espanola's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.24 PPG, Union Espanola 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.