Everton de Vina 2-0 Magallanes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Magallanes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Magallanes travel to Estadio Sausalito to take on Everton de Vina. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023, 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 2.19 xG and Magallanes 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.096 / defence 0.868 | Magallanes attack 0.945 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.274. Magallanes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Everton de Vina games / 9 Magallanes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 63% | Draw 21% | Magallanes 16%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Magallanes 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Everton de Vina (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Magallanes | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 63% | Draw 21% | Magallanes 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Everton de Vina 2.19 / Magallanes 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.096 / def 0.868 | Magallanes attack 0.945 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Magallanes xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Magallanes kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Magallanes kicked off at 01:30 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Magallanes?
Everton de Vina 2 - 0 Magallanes.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Magallanes being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Magallanes part of?
Everton de Vina vs Magallanes is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Magallanes?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 63% chance of winning, Magallanes a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Magallanes?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Everton de Vina and Magallanes will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Magallanes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Magallanes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Magallanes in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Everton de Vina home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 1.10x the league average against Magallanes's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Magallanes's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.66
16%
6.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
3.24
1.04
Magallanes xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
6.24
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
11%
8.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
2%
55.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Magallanes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Magallanes expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.04 for Magallanes, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Magallanes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
Magallanes
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
0
Draws
0
Magallanes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Magallanes?
From 2 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Magallanes have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Magallanes last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Magallanes 1-4 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Magallanes?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Magallanes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Magallanes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Magallanes 2-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 2.19 xG and Magallanes 1.04 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Magallanes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.10 / defence 0.87 against Magallanes attack 0.94 / defence 1.34, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 63% | Draw 21% | Magallanes 16%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.