Everton de Vina 1-0 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 47%, yet the head-to-head data favours Huachipato — this Everton de Vina vs Huachipato fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Huachipato travel to Estadio Sausalito to take on Everton de Vina in Primera División (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton de Vina stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Huachipato have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Huachipato have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 1.30 (Huachipato). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Huachipato have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Everton de Vina.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 May 2024, ended Everton de Vina 0–1 Huachipato — a Huachipato win.
Huachipato have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Huachipato in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 62% versus Huachipato 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 52% | Huachipato 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.47 xG and Huachipato 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.841 / defence 0.935 | Huachipato attack 0.938 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.184. Data: built from Everton de Vina's last 58 games and Huachipato's last 58.
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 47% | Draw 26% | Huachipato 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.12 | Draw 3.82 | Huachipato 3.74. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Everton de Vina 50% (last 10 home games) | Huachipato 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, matchday 29 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 47% | Draw 26% | Huachipato 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Everton de Vina 1.47 / Huachipato 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.841 / def 0.935 | Huachipato attack 0.938 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Huachipato xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton de Vina vs Huachipato FAQs
What time does Everton de Vina vs Huachipato kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Huachipato kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Everton de Vina 1 - 0 Huachipato.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Huachipato part of?
Everton de Vina vs Huachipato is a Primera División fixture (matchday 29) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 47% chance of winning, Huachipato a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Everton de Vina and Huachipato will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Everton de Vina vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Huachipato's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Huachipato's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Everton de Vina's last 58 games and Huachipato's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.82
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.51
1.04
Huachipato xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
6%
16.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton de Vina vs Huachipato Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.04 for Huachipato, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton de Vina come into this having played 58 games, going 24W 14D 20L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Huachipato sit at 1.52 PPG from 58 outings (25W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.48 PPG, Huachipato on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Everton de Vina's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Huachipato have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 29 away games (12W 4D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Huachipato are on 1.29 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Huachipato
Current Season
Everton de Vina (Home) vs Huachipato (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Huachipato
Current Season
❓ Everton de Vina vs Huachipato Form FAQs
What form are Everton de Vina and Huachipato in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Huachipato have gone 25W 13D 20L in their last 58 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Huachipato away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.41 PPG; Huachipato away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Feb 2025, when Huachipato won Huachipato 4-0 Everton de Vina.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Huachipato specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
1
Draws
6
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton de Vina vs Huachipato H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Huachipato?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton de Vina have won 3, Huachipato have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Huachipato last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Huachipato 1-4 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Huachipato?
Huachipato have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 55%, Huachipato 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Everton de Vina) and 55% (Huachipato).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton de Vina vs Huachipato Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton de Vina and Huachipato matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Everton de Vina's games and 59% of Huachipato's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Everton de Vina and Huachipato matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 55% of Huachipato's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Huachipato matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 83% of Huachipato's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out Huachipato 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Huachipato 1-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 29, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.47 xG and Huachipato 1.04 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Huachipato landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against Huachipato attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 47% | Draw 26% | Huachipato 27%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 52%, Huachipato 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Huachipato's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.48 PPG, Huachipato 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.