Everton de Vina 1-1 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and Deportes Iquique meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 July 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Everton de Vina have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio Sausalito — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Deportes Iquique have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Deportes Iquique have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. They are averaging 2.12 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Everton de Vina's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Deportes Iquique's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Deportes Iquique in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Deportes Iquique — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Everton de Vina 69% and Deportes Iquique 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Everton de Vina 62% | Deportes Iquique 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 2.03 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.009 / defence 0.998 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.108 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.392. Deportes Iquique bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Everton de Vina games / 16 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 21% | Deportes Iquique 29%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.04 | Draw 4.76 | Deportes Iquique 3.45. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 60% | Deportes Iquique 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 21% | Deportes Iquique 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Everton de Vina 2.03 / Deportes Iquique 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.009 / def 0.998 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.108 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Deportes Iquique xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique?
Everton de Vina 1 - 1 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 49% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 29% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Everton de Vina and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Deportes Iquique?
Record (1 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 1 | Deportes Iquique 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Deportes Iquique in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Deportes Iquique (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (1.01) and Deportes Iquique's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deportes Iquique's attack (1.11x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
49%
2.03
21%
4.67
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
3.57
1.54
Deportes Iquique xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
4%
25.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.54 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton de Vina come into this having played 16 games, going 7W 3D 6L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Iquique sit at 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (8W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.69 for Deportes Iquique. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Everton de Vina's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Iquique have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Iquique's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Deportes Iquique are on 1.94 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Deportes Iquique in 75%.
Last 16 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Deportes Iquique
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Deportes Iquique in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 games (1.50 PPG), while Deportes Iquique have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Deportes Iquique away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.57 PPG; Deportes Iquique away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Iquique — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Everton de Vina
2
Draws
1
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 1, Deportes Iquique have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Everton de Vina 0-1 Deportes Iquique.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 57%, Deportes Iquique 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Everton de Vina and 100% for Deportes Iquique. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Deportes Iquique?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Everton de Vina's games and 71% of Deportes Iquique's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Deportes Iquique usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Everton de Vina's matches and 100% of Deportes Iquique's.
Do Everton de Vina and Deportes Iquique tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Deportes Iquique in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and Deportes Iquique share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 17, as Everton de Vina and Deportes Iquique drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 2.03 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.54 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.11 / defence 1.35, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 21% | Deportes Iquique 29%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 62%, Deportes Iquique 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.