Everton de Vina 1-0 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Everton de Vina face Deportes Copiapo.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Deportes Copiapo make the trip to Estadio Sausalito to face Everton de Vina in Primera División (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form

Everton de Vina (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Everton de Vina have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Deportes Copiapo's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Deportes Copiapo's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Everton de Vina, 1 for Deportes Copiapo and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Everton de Vina 0–2 Deportes Copiapo — a Deportes Copiapo win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Deportes Copiapo — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Deportes Copiapo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Deportes Copiapo 43%). Note also that Deportes Copiapo surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Everton de Vina recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 2.37 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.122 / defence 1.078 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.880 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.414. Deportes Copiapo's defence rating of 1.374 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Everton de Vina's projected output up. Data: built from Everton de Vina's last 42 games and Deportes Copiapo's last 42.

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 60% | Draw 19% | Deportes Copiapo 21%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 1.66 | Draw 5.24 | Deportes Copiapo 4.84. The model has a clear lean to Everton de Vina (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.37 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Form (Everton de Vina's last 10 home games and Deportes Copiapo's last 10 away games) suggests only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 72% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton de Vina 80% (last 10 home games) | Deportes Copiapo 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights