Everton de Vina 1-1 Curico Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Everton de Vina (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Everton de Vina face Curico Unido.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Curico Unido travel to Estadio Sausalito to take on Everton de Vina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton de Vina stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Curico Unido have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Curico Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Curico Unido have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Everton de Vina are in the better shape of the two on current Primera División data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Everton de Vina, 0 for Curico Unido and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Curico Unido trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Curico Unido 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 45% | Curico Unido 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.52 xG and Curico Unido 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.976 / defence 1.063 | Curico Unido attack 0.864 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.352. Data: 56 Everton de Vina games / 56 Curico Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 25% | Curico Unido 31%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Curico Unido 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 70% | Curico Unido 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 25% | Curico Unido 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Everton de Vina 1.52 / Curico Unido 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.976 / def 1.063 | Curico Unido attack 0.864 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Curico Unido xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Everton de Vina 1 - 1 Curico Unido.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido part of?
Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 44% chance of winning, Curico Unido a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Everton de Vina and Curico Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Curico Unido?
Record (5 meetings): Everton de Vina 2W | Draws 3 | Curico Unido 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Curico Unido in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Curico Unido (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 0.98x the league average against Curico Unido's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Curico Unido's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
44%
2.28
25%
3.97
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.76
1.24
Curico Unido xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Curico Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.24 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 21W 20D 15L from 56 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Curico Unido, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 23L across 56 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Curico Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.48 PPG, Curico Unido on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 11W 10D 7L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Curico Unido's away record stands at 6W 13D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Curico Unido are on 1.32 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Curico Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Curico Unido in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 21W 20D 15L in their last 56 games (1.48 PPG), while Curico Unido have gone 19W 14D 23L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Curico Unido away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.54 PPG; Curico Unido away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2022, when Everton de Vina won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Curico Unido specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
0
Curico Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Curico Unido?
From 6 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Curico Unido have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Curico Unido last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Curico Unido?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 54%, Curico Unido 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Everton de Vina) and 50% (Curico Unido).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Curico Unido in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Curico Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Curico Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Everton de Vina's games and 68% of Curico Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 50% of Curico Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Curico Unido tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Curico Unido in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and Curico Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 27, as Everton de Vina and Curico Unido drew 1-1 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.52 xG and Curico Unido 1.24 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Curico Unido attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 25% | Curico Unido 31%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 45%, Curico Unido 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Curico Unido's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.48 PPG, Curico Unido 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.