Everton de Vina 2-2 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and Cobresal meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cobresal have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobresal have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.90 for Cobresal. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cobresal in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 2–3 with Cobresal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 55% versus Cobresal 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 41% | Cobresal 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.18 xG and Cobresal 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.001 / defence 1.019 | Cobresal attack 1.165 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.223. Data: 51 Everton de Vina games / 51 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 30% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 43%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Cobresal 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 60% | Cobresal 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Aug 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 30% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Everton de Vina 1.18 / Cobresal 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.001 / def 1.019 | Cobresal attack 1.165 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Cobresal xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Cobresal kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Cobresal kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Everton de Vina 2 - 2 Cobresal.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal part of?
Everton de Vina vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 30% chance of winning, Cobresal a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Everton de Vina and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobresal?
Record (4 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 3 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobresal in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Cobresal (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 1.00x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (1.17x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
30%
3.28
26%
3.82
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.63
1.45
Cobresal xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
7%
14.02
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.45 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 19W 19D 13L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal's form line: 24W 12D 15L from 51 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.65 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.56 PPG from 25 outings (10W 9D 6L).
On the road, Cobresal have gone 7W 6D 12L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.61 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 19W 19D 13L in their last 51 games (1.49 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 24W 12D 15L in their last 51 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Cobresal away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.56 PPG; Cobresal away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cobresal in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
6
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Cobresal have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 52%, Cobresal 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Everton de Vina) and 64% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Everton de Vina's games and 64% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Everton de Vina's matches and 64% of Cobresal's.
Do Everton de Vina and Cobresal tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and Cobresal share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and Cobresal finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.18 xG and Cobresal 1.45 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Cobresal attack 1.17 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 30% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 43%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 41%, Cobresal 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cobresal's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.49 PPG, Cobresal 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.