Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 43%, yet in-form Cobresal provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton de Vina vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and Cobresal meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Cobresal have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobresal have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cobresal are 0.80 PPG clear of Everton de Vina in recent Primera División fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 1W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 6 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Everton de Vina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Cobresal 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 48% | Cobresal 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.21 xG and Cobresal 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.607 / defence 0.835 | Cobresal attack 0.960 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.118. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.607 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Everton de Vina games / 40 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 43% | Draw 29% | Cobresal 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Cobresal 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cobresal (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 50% | Cobresal 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 43% | Draw 29% | Cobresal 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Everton de Vina 1.21 / Cobresal 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.607 / def 0.835 | Cobresal attack 0.960 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cobresal xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Cobresal kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Cobresal kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Everton de Vina 3 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal part of?
Everton de Vina vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 43% chance of winning, Cobresal a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Everton de Vina and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobresal?
Record (9 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 6 | Cobresal 2W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobresal in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Cobresal (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 0.61x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.96x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.41
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.11
0.90
Cobresal xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
8%
12.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.90 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 18W 17D 25L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Cobresal's form line: 22W 14D 24L from 60 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.33 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (9W 12D 9L).
On the road, Cobresal have gone 6W 7D 17L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.33 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Cobresal away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.30 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
6
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Cobresal have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 50%, Cobresal 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Everton de Vina) and 53% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 33% of games; Cobresal in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 43% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 53% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Cobresal tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Cobresal 3-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.21 xG and Cobresal 0.90 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.61 / defence 0.83 against Cobresal attack 0.96 / defence 1.33, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 43% | Draw 29% | Cobresal 27%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Cobresal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.18 PPG, Cobresal 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.