Deportes Limache 3-0 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Limache at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Limache vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Limache host Cobresal at Estadio Lucio Farina Fernandez in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 7 September 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportes Limache stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Lucio Farina Fernandez, Deportes Limache have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Deportes Limache are significantly better at Estadio Lucio Farina Fernandez than their overall form suggests.
Cobresal — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Deportes Limache at 0.90 PPG versus Cobresal's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Deportes Limache have won 2, Cobresal 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 5–2 with Deportes Limache winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Deportes Limache in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Cobresal in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Limache 56% versus Cobresal 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Limache 62% | Cobresal 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 2.02 xG and Cobresal 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 0.976 / defence 1.125 | Cobresal attack 1.023 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.293. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Deportes Limache's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Deportes Limache games / 51 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 50% | Draw 22% | Cobresal 28%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Cobresal 3.57. Deportes Limache hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Limache as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Limache offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Limache 40% | Cobresal 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Lucio Farina Fernandez • Kick-off: Monday 7 Sep 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 50% | Draw 22% | Cobresal 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Deportes Limache 2.02 / Cobresal 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 0.976 / def 1.125 | Cobresal attack 1.023 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Deportes Limache (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Cobresal xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Limache vs Cobresal kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Cobresal kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 7 September 2026 at Estadio Lucio Farina Fernandez.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Cobresal?
Deportes Limache 3 - 0 Cobresal.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Lucio Farina Fernandez.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Cobresal part of?
Deportes Limache vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 50% chance of winning, Cobresal a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Deportes Limache the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Deportes Limache and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Limache vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Cobresal?
Record (3 meetings): Deportes Limache 2W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are Deportes Limache and Cobresal in?
Deportes Limache (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Cobresal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Deportes Limache's attack rating (0.98) and Cobresal's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Deportes Limache's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Limache Win
50%
2.00
22%
4.65
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
3.50
1.49
Cobresal xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
4%
26.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 1.49 for Cobresal, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Deportes Limache come into this having played 50 games, going 17W 9D 24L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Deportes Limache is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.30 PPG from 50 outings (19W 8D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deportes Limache on 1.20 PPG, Cobresal on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Deportes Limache's home form reads 13W 1D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Deportes Limache are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.83 points per game from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Limache come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Deportes Limache are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.32 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Limache and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Deportes Limache have gone 17W 9D 24L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 19W 8D 23L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Limache at home or Cobresal away?
Deportes Limache's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Limache at home: 1.67 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deportes Limache and Cobresal runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Deportes Limache go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2026, when Deportes Limache won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deportes Limache's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Deportes Limache
0
Draws
1
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Cobresal?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Limache have won 3, Cobresal have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Deportes Limache 3-0 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Cobresal?
Deportes Limache have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Limache 29%, Cobresal 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Deportes Limache) and 58% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Deportes Limache keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Cobresal in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Limache play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Deportes Limache's recent matches and 54% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Limache vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Deportes Limache's recent games and 58% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportes Limache and Cobresal tend to score early?
Deportes Limache have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Deportes Limache run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Limache beat Cobresal 3-0 at Estadio Lucio Farina Fernandez, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 2.02 xG and Cobresal 1.49 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Limache beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Cobresal attack 1.02 / defence 1.32, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 50% | Draw 22% | Cobresal 28%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 62%, Cobresal 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Limache's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Cobresal's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Limache 1.20 PPG, Cobresal 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Limache win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.