Deportes Iquique 2-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nublense make the trip to Estadio Tierra de Campeones to face Deportes Iquique in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Monday 13 May 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nublense away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 2.30 xG and Nublense 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 1.187 / defence 1.121 | Nublense attack 1.079 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.414. Nublense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Deportes Iquique's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Deportes Iquique games / 41 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 51% | Draw 20% | Nublense 29%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 1.96 | Draw 5.00 | Nublense 3.45. Deportes Iquique hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Iquique as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 51% | Draw 20% | Nublense 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Deportes Iquique 2.30 / Nublense 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 1.187 / def 1.121 | Nublense attack 1.079 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Nublense xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Nublense kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Nublense kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 13 May 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Nublense?
Deportes Iquique 2 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Nublense part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 51% chance of winning, Nublense a 29% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Nublense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Nublense in?
Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Nublense away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Deportes Iquique's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (1.08x) against Deportes Iquique's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
51%
1.95
20%
5.02
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
4.01
1.71
Nublense xG
1.95
51%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.80
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
10%
9.95
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
3%
34.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.71 for Nublense, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
Nublense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Iquique have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Iquique
1
Draws
2
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Nublense?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Nublense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Deportes Iquique 0-2 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Deportes Iquique edge out Nublense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Nublense 2-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 2.30 xG and Nublense 1.71 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 1.19 / defence 1.12 against Nublense attack 1.08 / defence 1.26, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 51% | Draw 20% | Nublense 29%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.